The residential real estate market for the greater Seattle-Bellevue metro area has been relatively healthy and steady in 2019 after the May 2018 price correction. The sale prices of condominiums and single family homes increased 11.9% from January 2019 to May 2019. Currently, I estimate home values will decrease approximately 6% from June through December to approximately 350-355 $/sqft until January when values likely increase again, which is a net annual value increase of 5.9%.
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The National Association of Home Builders recently released their monthly confidence index and at 62, February 2019 marks the highest index in the past four months. The index may be broken down into a subset of categories, all of which show impressive gains, including sales conditions at 67, six-month expectations at 68 and buyer traffic at 48.
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I was recently holding an open house when a curious neighbor came into the home to check out the new improvements and ask about current market conditions. After showing her the home and added value/improvements made by the seller—and asking her to tell everyone she knew—I briefly explained that we are going through a market correction, which began in mid-May (like a light switch on May 10th), and touched on the probable causes. I went on to say that current market conditions seem to have stabilized: generally, sales have increased and inventory began decreasing around mid-October (I saw it October 18th). I summed it up quickly with, “I believe it’s a great time to buy.” She looked at me and said “yeah, but what would you say to your friend or a family member. How would you advise them?” I shrugged and smiled as I replied, “I just did.”
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We are mere days from the start of the new year and with it, comes an onslaught of expert predictions from a range of industries. Nerdwallet recently put together a list of the top nine trends for the coming year, which outline another challenging year for home buyers (though less so than in recent years), tight inventory, home price and mortgage rate rises, and more.
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A recent report released by the National Association of Realtors® reveals a decline in the number of home sales across the nation in September 2018, following a “month of stagnation in August.” The number of sales, which are composed of closed transactions of single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, were down 4.1 percent from September 2017.
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As was expected, mortgage rates have increased again, putting them at the highest level seen since April 2011. Seattle Times reports on the change, which pushed the 30-year-fixed-rate up to 4.90 percent in a 19-basis-point jump (1 basis point = 0.01 percentage point), the “largest one-week spike in the 30-year rate since November 2016, when it increased 37 points.” Alternatively, fifteen-year rates reached 4.29 percent, up from 4.15 percent last week and 3.21 percent last year.
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Amidst a strong economy and housing market, long-term mortgage rates in the United States inched upward this week, and as Seattle Times reports, the increase in the cost of borrowing comes “just as more of the millennial generation is entering the real estate market.” According to a release from Freddie Mac earlier this week, “the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 4.40 percent, a slight gain from 4.38 percent last week.”
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