Real Estate Market Update - November 2023
The Seattle-Bellevue residential real estate market activity has continued to slow according to trends as we approach the holiday season. As forecasted in September, I believe King County single-family median price appreciation for 2023 will be approximately 10%. Inventory continues to be at +10-year record lows while the pool of ready, willing, and able Buyers has slightly increased. Homes are still selling faster now than in pre-pandemic years and this Seller’s market should continue into 2024. Mortgage applications for both purchases and refinancing reached +28-year lows nationally this year in September, which closely corresponds to the peak in mortgage rates.
Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates were approximately 8.25% at the end of October, however, rates decreased by mid-November to about 7.25%. Recent decreases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producers Price Index (PPI), and Retail Price Index (RPI) indicate a decline in the rate of inflation increases together with economic slowing. The overall mortgage rate trend appears to be downward.
On November 17, 2023, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) forecasted 30-year fixed rate mortgages as follows:
• Q4-2023: 7.5%
• Q1-2024: 7.1%
• Q2-2024: 6.6%
• Q3-2024: 6.3%
• Q4-2024: 6.1%
I believe, if mortgage interest rates continue downward as forecasted by MBA, there will be increased market activity in 2024, which will increase inventory (motivate Sellers) while also increasing Buyer demand. Property values should begin increasing again in January 2024 as we enter the selling season until June and follow seasonal trends.
The ideal time to sell (list) a property is from late February until mid-May. Keep in mind that it will take approximately two months to schedule contractors to prepare the property, if necessary, and stage it. Stagers will be booked out six to eight weeks and photographers booked out three to four weeks. I understand that any related sales expenses (e.g. brokerage fees, listing preparation costs, staging fees, etc.) can be deducted from your taxable gain. Please consult with your Certified Public Accountant (CPA) to confirm. See this article, Sold Your Home This Year? Consider Writing Off Some Common Expenses.
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Have a happy Thanksgiving Day and holiday weekend!